Sunday, November 3, 2013

Probability of Spontaneously Giving Birth - the Graphs I Wanted

So we're in Week 39, with one day done, and I'm pretty ready to meet LGR (Little Girl Robinson).  At work, there are only a couple more things that I need to close out before I feel good about leaving the office.

So I really wanted to know -- what's the probability that I would have had LGR by now, and what's the probability that we would have her by the due date?

There's not a lot of great statistics on the Internet that I could find.  I did, however, find this site, that had exactly what I wanted:

This site also told me here that the probability that we would have had her by now is about 30%, and the probability that we would have her by Nov. 10 is 50%.  I'm not suuuuper happy about this because we have to wait a whole extra week to get to 80% probability, and right now that extra week seems really far away!  But it was good to have the numbers, anyways.